A more welcoming tone from the new Labour government towards international students has helped to slow the decline in applications to UK universities. But the traditionally strong recruitment levels needed to balance the books remain a long way off at many institutions.
Indeed, a recent analysis of risk factors by three academics from Sheffield University’s accountancy department concluded that four or five universities were close to bankruptcy. Many more institutions would also have to take drastic action, including multiple course closures and property sales, to avoid joining them. Although Vice-Chancellors are hoping for an increase in fees for UK students in October’s budget, a recovery in the international student market is equally urgent.
The factors at play are more complex than the more doom-laden reports have suggested, not least because Australia and Canada – two of the main rival recruiters – are both capping international student numbers. Some UK universities – generally the more highly-ranked institutions – are still in a relatively stable position, some levels of course are suffering more than others, and there is no uniform decline between countries in the numbers heading for Britain and Northern Ireland.
Over recent decades, UK universities’ recruitment of international students has been a story of uninterrupted success, as they benefited from a strong reputation and an English-speaking environment. Brexit caused the first ripple, as the numbers coming from EU countries plummeted, although the financial damage was limited because they had paid the same fees as their UK counterparts and their places were filled by students from other countries paying much more. In fact, the number of international students from outside the EU almost doubled, reaching a record 750,000 last year – far in excess of the official target of 600,000.
By then, however, immigration had become a dominant political issue for a Conservative government threatened by the rise of the right-wing Reform Party. Although polling showed that public concern about rising legal and illegal immigration did not extend to international students, their numbers were easier to control and would contribute to ministers’ desired overall decline. In particular, a ban on bringing dependants for undergraduate and most taught postgraduate courses, introduced at the start of this year, had a dramatic effect. There was even consideration given to withdrawing international students’ right to work for two years after graduation, which was reintroduced only in 2020. A rapid review by the government’s Migration Advisory Committee eventually recommended retaining the scheme, but the process added to concerns among potential applicants.
Deposits for places on courses starting this autumn are down more than a third, according to Enroly, a web platform for managing international enrolment, and even this figure is an improvement on May’s figure, which put the drop at over 50 percent. The declines were particularly sharp among students from Nigeria and India – 63 percent and 43 percent respectively – both of which are nationalities which are more than averagely likely to bring dependants when studying abroad.
The latest UK figures for undergraduate entry show international acceptances down only marginally on 2023, although still well below pre-pandemic numbers. But undergraduates are less likely than postgraduates to bring dependants and universities are braced for less encouraging figures later in the year when admissions are no longer dominated by first degree entrants.
There had been fears that this summer’s riots following the murder of three young girls in Southport might prove a further disincentive to international students considering the UK. But the short-lived nature of the disturbances and tough action against many of those participating appear to have dampened the effect.
Bridget Phillipson, the Education Secretary, has gone out of her way to reverse the negative impression given to international students by the last government. In a video aimed at both potential applicants and universities, she said: “While this government is committed to managing migration carefully, international students will always be welcome in this country. The UK wouldn’t be the same without them.“
She added: “Students benefit from coming to the UK, and we benefit from them being here. But I don’t see this as a hard-nosed transactional relationship. It’s not just about GDP, balance sheets or export receipts. No, my passion is for an open, global Britain – one that welcomes new ideas. One that looks outward in optimism, not inward in exclusion.“
However, this does not imply the scrapping of the ban on dependents. When asked in a television interview whether the visa rules would be reversed, Phillipson responded: “We don’t intend to change that.” More positively, she has also confirmed that the right to work at the end of a course would remain.
Many universities – particularly those with the lowest entry standards – remain braced for continuing serious declines in international enrolments. Home Office figures published in August showed that while the decline in sponsored study visas had slowed to 16 percent at the height of the admissions season, the drop in applications from dependents was over 80 percent.
Those responsible for international recruitment at UK universities will be hoping that Canada’s intention to reduce the number of study permits by more than a third and Australia’s announcement of a new quota system for each university and college will redirect some applicants their way. In particular, the Australian controls are expected to affect the popular, large, research-intensive universities disproportionately.
There are other players in the increasingly competitive international student market, however. In Asia, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia are all boosting their recruitment efforts. The Japanese government has set a target of 400,000 international students by 2033 and has launched its first official video promoting the country as a study destination. European countries are also increasing their international enrolments, promoting degrees taught in English with low or no fees. Germany, in particular, has seen a surge in student numbers.
In the UK, a variety of responses include the search for new markets, with countries such as Kenya and Nepal showing big increases in the numbers recruited, albeit from a small base. There has also been significant growth in transnational education (TNE), especially in China, which has been sending fewer students to the UK. China now licences two overseas campuses and 47 joint institutes with UK universities, and it has been reported that almost 80 percent of UK universities are involved in TNE projects.