Seb Murray
Talking points
For decades, a university degree has functioned as a fairly reliable signal of ability, ambition and upward potential. It implied employability and, for many, it delivered stability. However, that link now looks increasingly fragile. This year, graduates in major economies are entering some of the weakest early-career job markets in many years.
In the UK, graduate job postings have fallen by 33 percent year-on-year, reaching their lowest level in seven years, according to Indeed, the job search site. In the US, unemployment among college graduates aged 22 to 27 has risen higher than 5.8 percent between January and March this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The most affected sectors are not only those in decline, but also those once viewed as professional stepping stones, such as media, marketing, human resources and project management.
Demand has cooled even where labour shortages persist. Employers cite economic uncertainty, rising wage costs and growing investment in automation as reasons for pulling back on hiring fresh graduates. “Many factors outside of their degree will influence a graduate’s immediate job prospects – the health of the economy being the most obvious,” says Vivienne Stern, CEO of Universities UK, the sector body in Britain.
In Canada, the situation is also challenging. Youth unemployment climbed to 11.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, meaning that recent graduates are confronting what experts say could be the most difficult job market in over two decades, aside from the Covid pandemic years.
This is not a crisis of higher education, but rather a test. While a degree still holds value, it no longer guarantees a job. Universities and employers now face a crucial question: has the degree’s role in shaping career outcomes kept pace with the wider economy?
The equation is shifting. What is working? What is not? And what must evolve if the degree is to remain a bridge between education and opportunity?
The trend is clear: entry-level opportunities have tightened across sectors. Graduate job markets in the UK and US have entered a sustained slowdown, with early-career opportunities falling to their lowest levels in years. Employers are pulling back on hiring, keeping existing staff instead of adding new roles, and in some cases replacing junior jobs with automation.
In the UK, graduate job postings are down to a level that marks a far steeper decline than in the broader labour market, where total postings in mid-June were 5 percent below their March peak. The UK is now the only major economy where job openings have yet to return to their pre-Covid baseline.
In the US, the picture is similarly constrained. Figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the hiring rate for entry-level positions dropped to 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025 — the slowest for that period since before 2010. The same graduates are applying to more roles, according to data from job platforms.
Indeed’s figures show the sharpest contractions in the UK are occurring in the professional sectors that once formed the backbone of graduate employment. Job postings in media and communications are down 48 percent from their pre-pandemic levels. Marketing is down 37 percent. Human resources and project management have both fallen by 27 percent.
Job market analysts and campus recruiters say many firms are retaining existing staff rather than onboarding new entrants. Other companies are delaying start dates. EY, the professional services firm and a top graduate employer, has postponed dates for graduates joining its US strategy and deal advisory division for a third consecutive year.
Even elite institutions are not immune. Reports from top US business schools indicate that offer rates have declined in recent recruitment cycles - even for some of the most highly qualified candidates.
According to experts, the graduate market is defined by slower hiring, reduced churn and more cautious recruitment. The volume of applications is up, but the flow of new positions is down. In the UK, applications per graduate role rose 286 percent last year compared with 2023, according to recruitment software firm Tribepad.
Some employers are simply holding back. Job listings on Handshake, a university-focused recruitment platform, have declined by 15 percent over the past year, even as application volumes have surged by 30 percent.
The result is a kind of economic bottleneck. Graduates are still arriving, sometimes in greater numbers than ever. But the pathways once available to them are narrowing. The promise of steady progression — from education into work, and from work into stability — has become harder to fulfil, even for those with strong credentials.