A Perfect Storm?

Much attention has been paid in international education circles in recent years to the impact of significant shifts in migration policy Student visa settings specifically, as well as the implementation of “caps” or attempts by governments to manage downwards the number of international students in countries and individual institutions has dominated thinking.

Analysis of application data, visa lodgement numbers and surveys of prospective students and recruitment agents have all evidenced the dampening of demand that even the discussion of possible changes to post-study work rights, increased visa fees and caps can have. Furthermore, a decline in preferences for a particular destination can continue regardless of the posited change being implemented or deferred.

Many of these changes have been driven by a broader debate in relation to the level of migration in the host country which, in turn, has arisen from concerns about the increased cost of living and lack of affordable housing. In Australia, for example, the lead up to the recent federal election saw both main political parties focused on international students and their apparent role in contributing to the national housing crisis. This is despite studies showing the relatively small percentage of private rental accommodation being lived in by those same students.

At the same time as we are seeing rising geopolitical tensions and protectionist measures being put in place at the national level, and reduced public funding being invested in higher education, we have seen the traditional “Big 4” study destinations - Australia, the UK, US and Canada - tightening requirements for student visas, changing processing priorities (and even revoking or stopping the processing of student visas) and reinforcing their power to limit the number of international students admitted by education providers.

All of this has come at a time when there has also been shifting patterns of international student demand post-COVID 19, with a growing trend for intra-regional study in Asia that has seen increased numbers of mainland Chinese, for example, studying closer to home.

An increased focus on accessible and affordable education has also resulted in mobile students willing to trade off a study experience in one of the Big 4 for cheaper tuition fees and a lower cost of living, better post-study migration opportunities and perceptions of a generally more welcoming environment.

In and by itself, these factors makes for very challenging and volatile international recruitment conditions. This is especially true for those Big 4 providers that have become accustomed to hosting large numbers of international students, that are now increasingly having to react and respond at short notice to domestic policy changes as well as develop new recruitment strategies and channels abroad.

However, there is another variable in the mix that has received relatively little attention, yet is arguably equally significant in determining demand for education: the rapid improvement in the quality and performance of higher education systems in the countries that were once the source of international students.

While institutions in Canada, Australia, the UK and the US continue to improve their global ranking in this year’s release of the QS World University Rankings, there has been a significant increase in the position of universities from ‘alternative study destinations’. Ireland, Germany and New Zealand, for example, feature among the 26 countries and territories that have seen at least 50 percent of their universities improve their ranking. At the same time, new or ‘emerging’ study destinations including the UAE and Korea have also risen, with a Korean institution entering the top 50 for the first time.

Academic reputation, a key variable in determining a university’s ranking and student demand, together with citations per faculty, has continued to decline for universities in the US. Should that trend continue, there is the potential for 24 American institutions dropping out of the top 100.

Despite the increased emphasis on employability and focus on the role of universities in preparing graduates for careers of the future, as well as being the top driver for international student choice in global research released earlier this year, Australian has joined Canada and the UK with declines in employer reputation. Faculty student ratios have also declined across the Big 4 institutions, and that is likely to be exacerbated in future iterations of the QS WUR, with the level of institutional restructuring and academic redundancies taking place, particularly in UK and Australian universities.

While the QS WUR reports on what has already happened in institutions, and this year’s release does not reflect the full extent of domestic policy changes and restructuring seen in the last year, the shift in demand for the Big 4 as an international study option is already evident. While Australian and UK campuses have long been among the most international globally, Australia is the only one of the four destinations to see an increase in its international student ratio. Importantly, this increase is largely attributed to pent-up demand due to prolonged border closures during COVID-19 and delays in visa processing immediately post-pandemic which saw an influx of international students at the time data for the QS WUR were being collected.

Since then, declining commencements are already in evidence in several Australian universities, along with reduced pipeline numbers in language centres and pathway colleges. The impact of Canada’s caps is visible in this year’s rankings release, with a significant decline in the number of Canadian universities in the top 100 for this metric. There is a similar decline in UK institutions which aligns with debate at the time regarding the anticipated removal of post-study work rights and changes to regulations allowing dependents to travel to the UK which had a marked impact on demand from large volume markets such as Nigeria.

Read the full article at QS Insights Magazine.